When the experts were wrong

One of the most common retorts lockdown sceptics hear is “How can lockdowns be wrong when the whole world is doing them?” And it appears to be one that carries some weight. We sceptics can point to the countries and US states that didn’t lockdown, or did so very lightly, and did no worse health-wise, and often better, than those that did (with none of the terrible collateral damage), but our point still doesn’t appear to land. It seems that by and large the public assess that the ‘experts’ all across the globe have decided lockdowns work, and so they must work. We might respond that if lockdowns worked why aren’t there a thousand medical text books on the veracity of them (as opposed to zero); but perhaps we need to change tack. What if we pointed out how the ‘experts’ of the past sometimes got it horribly, ridiculously, outrageously, dreadfully, appallingly wrong! So perhaps our current 'experts' are wrong too. You never know. So, join me on a journey into the fragility of human intelligence and judgement…

“Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems. Even if you project it beyond our lifetimes, it won’t be cheap enough.”
Marty Cooper, director of research at Motorola in 1981

“There is practically no chance communications satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States.”
Tunis Craven, commissioner of the Federal Communications Commission in 1961

“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” 
Albert Einstein in 1932

“Our skepticism is only as to the utilitarian value of any present or possible achievement of the aeroplane. We do not believe it will ever be a commercial vehicle at all.”
Engineering Magazine in 1906

“There is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, the head of IBM in 1943

“If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.” 
WC Heuper, National Cancer Institute in 1954

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation in 1977

“In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines - hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.”
Paul R Ehrlich, The Population Bomb in 1968

“Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.”
Alex Lewyt, president of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company in 1955

“Guitar groups are on the way out, Mr Epstein.”
Dick Rowe, head of A&R at Decca Records, after failing to sign The Beatles in 1962

“Darwin’s theory of the origin of species is not only without sufficient support from evidence, but is proved false by a cumulative proof.”
Professor Fleeming Jenkin, Regis professor of engineering at the University of Edinburgh, and polymath, in 1860

“Distaval can be given with complete safety to pregnant women and nursing mothers without adverse effect on mother or child.”
Advertisement by The Distillers Company (Biochemicals) Ltd in 1958, promoting their new sedative drug thalidomide, which had been approved by medical authorities for use in 46 different countries

I think we’ve heard enough from experts.

I am grateful to Matt Ridley’s book How Innovation Works for some of the above quotes.